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Jacob



Joined: 13 May 2003
Posts: 1714

PostPosted: Thu, 01.05.12 3:58 pm    Post subject: Winter League 2012 Reply with quote

This thread was started, because it's easier to find than an "It's here ya'll".

The delay was caused by the desire to analyze the schedule and provide top-notch analysis. The schedule was formatted to be dizzying to analyze, so all we get is half-baked analysis. If your team plays Blue or Sangria more than other teams, then you'll have more losses.

Schedule:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjgLUgkUdPSldHhHQ3p1MDVQVC1FdE9laDJ3bWhUOHc

Predictive Season Finish Rankings:
10) David Marfas (Orange)
Champagne is not the most observant person we know, but he should at least know who you are if you're sitting one seat down from him. During the eighth round of the draft, Champagne asks "Who is David Marfas." Well, he's the guy sitting 4 feet away from you that has drafted the worst team in the league. Cumbarge was the first pick of the second round. He is still attempting to learn a backhand, but his flick has moments.
9) Dustin & Ryan (Purple)
The first overall pick should be reserved for someone that signed up for the league. Jody's apathy and busy schedule caused him to skip summer league. Now he's saddled with the unfair burden of coaching up a team that lacks a first round talent.
Austin Culp looked like he'd be a stud by now during his first semester in college. Either his failures in preparation or the Kearney/Matty/Matt regime's tutelage have lead to a ton of unrealized potential.
8 ) Vikki (Lime)
This group offers the ability to stretch the field as cutters but lacks big yardage throwers. The dearth of throwers will lead to high count turns and unforced redzone errors. My advice is to force the hospital pass and give up on the dump/swing mechanism.
7) Jon Mills (Yellow)
Corey and Mills will combine the twin towers of tumult. Their ability to be tall and fast will frequently be outweighed by their inability to remain level headed. This team is the early favorite for most infighting and implosions.
6) Champagne (Sand)
Champagne has constructed a team that mirrors himself in that the mood of the squad will greatly oscillate based on sideline substance. Abe Gambert is their best bet to provide a legit deep threat, but he'll find it tougher when he's also drawing the opposing team's best deep defender in coverage.
5) Brosh (White)
Brosh has put together a team that closely resembles the winter league squad that Terrell put together last year. The team performed miserably in the regular season with low numbers, but boasted a large squad that made the semis at the tournament. Though I think Brosh will show up more for himself than for someone else.
Does Brosh picking Matt Seaton over me indicate that he believes Seaton is a better player than myself or simply that he doesn't like me very much. If it's the former, then I disagree, but Brosh is entitled to construct his team however he likes, because he's Volunteering his time and effort to help the FDA league. However, if Brosh believes I am a better player than Seaton, then this means he dislikes me by a wider margin than he perceives my skills to be greater than Seaton's. My take is that Brosh either likes me less than I thought or thinks Seaton has developed quicker than I was aware.
4) Jwill (Black)
This team is not more talented than 5, 6, or 7. This team exceeds expectations due to Jwill and Earl's punctuality and enthusiasm. Both of which are in short supply at winter league. Kaplan has smooth skin. Andrea is a guaranteed female that will be counted on to generate most of their blocks when they go man. The males on the team have no shortage of defensive shortcomings. Having a female that is guaranteed to show is something only a handful of teams can boast. Captains need to embrace GTL if they wan their ladies to stick around.
3) Casey K (Red)
CaseyK built a team with a predictable offensive gameplan that should be terrifically simple and easy to defend, if you run hard. The roster only offers two players with the ability to attempt a break throw. Working the disc methodically will not be this teams forte. I do not buy this team as good, but I buy other teams as offering less hustle.
Wes Axtell inability to grow into a first round talent can be partially attributed to my failed tutelage. He withered down from a capable playmaker in his first semester to a hesitant rookie on the field during my reign of terror with LS. I'm hopeful he's regained his confidence and found his niche between the lines. Recently I asked him, "Can I have your number? I want to do some heavy breathing." His reply was was "Well, I'll give u my number, but not for that 4794450489" So we're not as close as we were when I mentored him, but we'll get back to our heavy breathing days of yore.
2) Will Sharp (Sangria)
Stu Allgood has become a solid player. He's versatile enough to lockdown the best handlers and cutters in our league through the duration of a game with intensity. Admittedly, that would mean more if our league had more talent. Kearney will make the flashier plays on defense, but I expect Stu's impact to be felt on every possession by an offense. He is a workhorse when it comes to denying dumps and limiting space he allows cutters. The creates more high-count pressure passes and throws into tighter windows. Could a motivated Kearney offer a similar impact? Of course, he's a fine athlete when he stops fixing his hair. Sam Borgstadt has been impressive as a deep threat at highschool practices and pick up. His lousy attendance records of the past and an endzone crowded with Kearney and Stu cherry picking will limit his effectiveness. This team is the favorite to win the tournament. They have the best young (ie healthy, in shape) talent. Expect losses if the college team ever decides to travel this semester. This team has the best player in Fayetteville and should only lose when he's at tournaments.
1) Wax (Blue)
This team is the prohibitive regular season favorite, because Wax was able to secure the self-proclaimed "Best Player in Fayetteville" with a second round pick. This further demonstrates my point that a single competent captain surrounded by incompetent captains is the most damaging thing in FDA leagues. The Wax-Boy combo should lead to high expectations. The two big oafs are further complemented by a group of good attitude role players that run hard.
Beating them will require a little luck and bad weather. Wax and April have greatly diminished effectiveness against zone defenses. Use a zone to limit their opportunities streaking to the endzone and ratchet up the pressure on Boy to make big throws for a team with few skilled throwers. Get creative with your zones and poaching schemes. Ride what works until it doesn't. Frustrate Boy into becoming your best player by committing unforced errors in droves.
Wax is a still a name brand, but he's not the ogre we remembered before he left. Women made him weak. He's now the kind of guy that gets beat up and down the field by JBU alum Daniel West at Regionals. His regression in aggression was not offset by growth in disc skills or field awareness.

A few notes if we want to continue to have coed FDA league:
*Increase the number of females, if possible. Keep them around. Summer league teams averaged 3.5 drafted females per team. Winter League teams averaged 2.5 drafted females per team. The winter league numbers are even inflated by the number of college girls that signed up and have notoriously poor attendance.
*Or cap the number of males that can sign up for the next league. Teams with 12 guys and 2 girls don't want to play 5-2. The 6-1 ratio offers few opportunities for females to impact games, which makes retention of players more difficult.
*If capping the number of male participants is too radical, then don't allow any guys in the supplemental with our next leagues. Or restrict the supplemental to only males in town. Stu Jack is very capable of signing up for our leagues if he's interested in them. If he ends up coming to winter league, then he's going to be the ruination of my preseason picks.

Notably absent from our 2012 Winter League: Matty J, NWB, Sadie, Meghan Lewis, Bob Lee, Amy E, the snacks Amy E brings, and Joe Bell. Young people come play. Old people, you'll be missed if you're done.
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ROCOBaller



Joined: 22 Sep 2005
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PostPosted: Thu, 01.05.12 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i think you scared off the ladies with your helicopter....but i am hoping more of the college ladies come out

also, my broken hand is going to translate into a rookie of the year scenario where my throwing becomes phenomenal Wink

expect prediction ruination
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jwillgoesfast



Joined: 08 Apr 2003
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PostPosted: Thu, 01.05.12 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks for the effort you put into my entertainment, Jacob. I especially enjoyed reading it with your voice as that of Jeff Bridges in True Grit.

what does GTL mean?

I'm skeptical of your prediction of Kerney & Stuart's performance, but if it means their success, then I don't mind being proved wrong.

I expect great things from Blue & red, but also expect them to not be met. I have low expectations for sangria & white, but expect them to be surpassed. I expect everyone else to meet expectations. I'd also like to see lots of improvement from team JB Hunt, especially the Harder Twins.
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Cam Wow



Joined: 26 Jan 2009
Posts: 369
Location: Faytown

PostPosted: Thu, 01.05.12 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like to think I have of the highest quality "dumping" backhand in the game bahaha
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Chuck



Joined: 26 Mar 2009
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Location: Bentonville

PostPosted: Thu, 01.05.12 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since I don't have as much insight as my esteemed teammate (who I also mysteriously didn't draft...), I'll just piggyback off the OP with a few comments:

10) Me: who is your captain?
Cam: David Marfas
Me: No ****! I mean WHO IS DAVID MARFAS?!?
Cam: Bahahahaha lolllooooolloloool

9) While Jody is the best coach/captain I've had, the pure handle 1st overall had me scratching my head...

8) I don't know the Lortons well enough to say much. It will be good to see Paul Baker again though.

7) Kreps adds to the height factor as a super tall ecto, but doesn't bid for skyballs...

6) Meh

5) Jacob, you are insecure. Also, I need some of your expert tutelage, so no offense.
Also, why was Kyle not mentioned? I see matchew to Dtrain (sp) happening all day.

4) most friendly team.

3) a. Poor Wes.
b. where is Renata?!?
c. Besides my borderline obesity, decision-making is a key area of improvement for me this league. I hope to pleasantly surprise Pops, and disappoint the other captains who passed me over 7 times each :D
d. We will be solid on D, and will win with consistency on O.

2) We can only hope that Kearney will - on a weekly basis - wake up, look at the weather on his phone, and decide not to show up. This happened 5-6 times last winter.

1) I thought Abe (the great) was the self-proclaimed "best... in Fayetteville" --?!?
Anywho...
I see Luke and gentry handling with Boy FWIW


Last edited by Chuck on Fri, 01.06.12 7:37 am; edited 1 time in total
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ROCOBaller



Joined: 22 Sep 2005
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PostPosted: Thu, 01.05.12 10:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

renata said she'd be there sunday to get in the supplemental

i believe jacob was saying there was a "the best player" and a "the best self proclaimed player"

i don't think people should look too much into the draft, as previously stated, people weren't paying too much attention
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Monster



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PostPosted: Fri, 01.06.12 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jwillgoesfast wrote:


what does GTL mean?



Gym. Tan. Laundry.
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ROCOBaller



Joined: 22 Sep 2005
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PostPosted: Fri, 01.06.12 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

my incohesive thoughts:

i think people are underestimating orange with a bustin, lmac, and cox core (as long as they show up)

purple will also exceed expectations - these guys play ultimate more than veteran players at least 1-2 times per week...inexperience + excitement for the game > rusty haters

since we're expected to win, blue will surely fail - as proved by tunesquad's can't forget about soon enough regionals performance, though we will probably be changing our name to Blue Glitter Eggs in honor of Abe Coffin

there will be some good match ups, depending on who shows up and what kind of mood and sobriety they're in
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Chuck



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PostPosted: Fri, 01.06.12 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ceach is also worth mentioning, as he shares qualities (handle, leadership) with Jody. Still not sure who the deeps are on that team though (and mids, for that matter)...

Also, (@April) don't leave Cam "Blastoise" out of the cox/bustin/lmac core! He is a major upfield yards contributor. And he listens to some weird/disturbing music. Guess he also has something in common with Jody Razz
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Monster



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PostPosted: Sat, 01.07.12 1:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ROCOBaller wrote:


since we're expected to win, blue will surely fail - as proved by tunesquad's can't forget about soon enough regionals performance


Tunesquad was expected to win?
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ROCOBaller



Joined: 22 Sep 2005
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PostPosted: Sat, 01.07.12 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

not expected to win, but do well...
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Kearney



Joined: 02 Dec 2008
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PostPosted: Sat, 01.07.12 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like the post. And the word tutelage. And Jwill.

I'm glad my attendance is a big concern, it takes years to build that kind of rapport. Also why will texts me everyday asking if I'm going to make it out to league. Stu is awesome.
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Kearney



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PostPosted: Sun, 01.08.12 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

well, it's a few degrees above my threshold. Can't wait to see andrea and casey k's smiling faces today Very Happy
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Elvin



Joined: 17 Apr 2008
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PostPosted: Sun, 01.08.12 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kearney wrote:
well, it's a few degrees above my threshold.


are you in the 70-80 degree club too?
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Elvin



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PostPosted: Sun, 01.08.12 8:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Winter League 2012 Reply with quote

Jacob wrote:
Austin Culp looked like he'd be a stud by now during his first semester in college. Either his failures in preparation or the Kearney/Matty/Matt regime's tutelage have lead to a ton of unrealized potential.

Wes Axtell inability to grow into a first round talent can be partially attributed to my failed tutelage.


This is probably the same reason why I never reached my full potential of becoming a perennial 3rd rounder...but I'll just go ahead and blame it on the Iron Panties of 2008.
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